USD/JPY has been called the trend that has killed a few hedge funds. The theme seemed perfect for a rise to 150 from 125 as the Federal Reserve was expecting to raise rates persistently while the Bank of Japan reached in their QE toolbox for more ways to weaken the JPY. However, from June to June, the price of USD/JPY fell ~21% on persistent JPY strength.

Talking Points:

  • USJ/JPY Technical Strategy: Bullish Break > Ichimoku Cloud turns focus higher
  • Bank of Japan chooses “yield curve control,” they may have changed the game of QE
  • USD/JPY > 100-DMA (103.67), all focus now on 104.32 (Triangle Invalidation).On Thursday, the price of USD/JPY .

 

forex technical analysis

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is going to reverse from ascending to descending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (140.50). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (141.95).

n the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (137.47). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (142.00).

Recommendation

On the four-hour chart the instrument is trading within the cloud. On the daily chart the instrument is trading within the cloud. It is not recommended to open positions at current price. Pending orders should be placed at the cloud’s borders: sell at the level of 140.50, with Take Profit at 139.93 and Stop Loss at 141.95; buy at the level of 141.95, with Take Profit at 142.69 and Stop Loss at 140.50.

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 140.50
Take Profit 139.93
Stop Loss 141.95
Key Levels 137.47 140.50 141.95 142.00

Alternative scenario

Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 141.95
Take Profit 142.69
Stop Loss 140.50
Key Levels 137.
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